عاجل | «النقد الدولي»: الاقتصاد السعودي الأقل تأثراً في الخليج بحرب إيران

The Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund, Dr. Jihad Azour, revealed that the Saudi economy is the least affected in the Gulf by the Iran war.

In an interview with "Al Arabiya Business," he pointed out that the East-West pipeline has helped mitigate the impact of the war on the kingdom's economy, while the Middle East region has demonstrated its significant ability to adapt during the war.

Regarding his visit to the region, the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund stated: "My visit comes as part of ongoing consultations with its leaders since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February." He explained that the Fund has held meetings from the beginning with finance ministers and central bank governors to discuss the repercussions of this major event on the region's economies.

Unprecedented Crisis

He clarified that the current crisis is unprecedented in half a century, both in terms of the nature of the shocks and their magnitude, which necessitated the adoption of several scenarios in the Fund's forecasts, varying according to the depth of the crisis, its duration, and how to exit from it.

He added that the high level of uncertainty requires adopting more than one potential path, noting that the conflict has shifted from its destructive military phase to a state of stagnation, yet its economic impacts remain strong, especially on the movement of essential goods, such as oil, gas, and their derivatives.

3 Levels

Azour indicated that the repercussions of the crisis extend to three levels, including the direct impact on the region's economies, indirect effects extending to major global economies, in addition to the varying impact of the shock within the region itself, where some countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Oman, were affected to a lesser degree, while other countries faced greater pressures, particularly those that import food.

He pointed out that rising oil prices have contributed to alleviating the impact on some exporting countries, while the prices pose a burden on importing countries, emphasizing that the difficulty of the current phase is due to the lack of clarity regarding the duration and end of the crisis, making it complex to accurately estimate the size of its impact.

Market Adaptation

Regarding energy markets, Azour explained that prices have not risen to the levels that some feared, despite the shock, attributing this to the markets' ability to adapt, whether through redirecting production or developing infrastructure for oil transportation, such as pipelines in Saudi Arabia.

He stated that countries with strong reserves, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, have a greater ability to enter financing markets, noting that Saudi Arabia was one of the largest bond issuers among emerging markets in 2025.