صراع يتمدّد ولا نهاية قريبة.. حرب إيران تدخل مرحلة استنزاف مفتوحة

As the war in the Middle East enters its second month, the French magazine "Le Nouvel Observateur" has raised 5 questions to understand its trajectory in the coming phase.

It reported in its analysis that the conflict has expanded regionally, and its repercussions are beginning to affect global security, energy, and the economy.

The report indicated that the war has entered an open phase of attrition, where military calculations intertwine with economic risks and regional balances, with no clear indicators of a near end.

Here are 5 questions to shed light on the current situation of this conflict:

- How long will this conflict last?

Statements from American officials, particularly Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggest the possibility of achieving objectives within weeks without ground intervention, while keeping the door open for negotiations despite Tehran's announced rejection of talks so far, reflecting ambiguity in the horizon of the conflict between military resolution and political settlement.

Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff expressed hope for talks with Iran this week, stating at a business forum in Miami: "We believe meetings will be held this week," while Tehran has repeatedly confirmed that it does not intend to negotiate with the United States.

- How far will the war spread?

The magazine states that the confrontation has surpassed the borders of Iran and Israel to include regional parties, most notably the Houthis, who entered the conflict on Saturday by targeting what they described as sensitive sites within Israel.

Several facilities in the Gulf countries have been attacked, with the latest being the port of Salalah in Oman and Kuwait International Airport, while Tehran is closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to expand the battles towards another maritime corridor, Bab al-Mandab, which warns of an open regional confrontation.

- Will the war target more civilian objectives?

The magazine pointed out the escalation in the nature of the targets to include civilian infrastructure, particularly in the energy and water desalination sectors, with both sides exchanging threats to strike vital facilities. This comes amid U.S. President Donald Trump's warning of targeting electrical facilities, in contrast to an Iranian threat to strike energy and technology facilities in the region. Despite extending the deadline until next Friday, there are concerns about the war transitioning to a more dangerous phase.

- What are the implications of the war on the global economy?

The war has caused a shock in energy markets with a sharp rise in oil prices, amid fears of a repeat of the 1973 crisis when oil prices quadrupled. However, major economies today are less dependent on oil than they were in the early 1970s, as there is nuclear energy and renewable energies that could alleviate the impact of this significant shortage in oil and gas supplies. The repercussions remain strong, with rising living costs and some countries taking support measures to mitigate the impact.

- How is the situation developing in Lebanon?

The report discussed the worsening situation following Hezbollah's involvement in the fighting in support of Iran, leading to extensive military escalation with Israel in the south, the Bekaa Valley, and the southern suburbs of Beirut, resulting in hundreds of deaths and the displacement of large numbers, making the Lebanese arena one of the most dangerous fronts of escalation.

Israel continues to bombard Lebanon with all types of weapons and is attempting to penetrate southern Lebanon in order to expand a buffer zone it wants to establish along its borders.

According to official statistics, the war has resulted in the deaths of 1,142 people and the displacement of more than one million people in Lebanon.