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Australia is preparing for a significant demographic shift over the coming decades, as the government predicts that the number of deaths will exceed the number of births for the first time by the 2060s, a development that could have wide-ranging implications for the economy amid an aging population, declining birth rates, and reduced levels of immigration.

For many years, Australia has relied on immigration as the main driver of population growth to compensate for declining birth rates. However, with immigration slowing down, the country is beginning to approach a trajectory already seen in other advanced economies, including Japan, Germany, and South Korea, where the number of deaths exceeds the number of births.

5 Transformations Shaping the Future of the Economy

A report on successive generations, released today (Monday) by the Australian Treasury, warned of five major transformations that will have the greatest impact on the country's economic outlook over the next four decades.

These transformations include artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, the transition in the energy sector, population aging, along with a greater shift of the economy towards the services sector.

The government expects population growth to slow to about 0.9% annually over the next four decades, with continued declines in fertility rates and net overseas migration, before stabilizing later.

This rate represents a significant decrease compared to an average population growth of 1.4% annually over the past forty years.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated in a speech on Monday: "For the first time, it is expected that the number of deaths will exceed the number of births by the 2060s."

He added that the number of Australians aged over 85 will triple by 2066, which will increase pressure on health services.

Tightening Immigration Restrictions

The new forecasts come as the Australian government tightens immigration rules.

The left-leaning Labor government tightened immigration rules related to foreign students last week, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks to counter rising support for the right-wing populist "One Nation" party, which advocates sharply reducing immigration levels.

This coincides with a decline in Albanese's popularity, as his approval rating this week dropped to its lowest level since he took office as Prime Minister in 2022.

Increased Pressure on the Care Sector

The report warned that the aging population will lead to increased demand for care services, especially in areas with higher proportions of elderly residents.

These areas are expected to face an increasing labor shortage in the healthcare and elderly care sectors, both of which rely heavily on migrant labor.

The report notes that the demographic changes will not only impact the labor market and health services but will also reflect on public finances, given the expected increase in spending on health and social care.

Taxes and Measures to Address Rising Living Costs

The report also indicated the possibility of tax cuts in upcoming budgets, alongside the Labor government continuing to provide more measures to alleviate the cost of living burdens on Australians.

Residents are facing increasing pressures due to ongoing inflation, rising interest rates on mortgage loans, and the significant increase in housing costs.

Government forecasts suggest that Australia will face a more complex economic and demographic equation over the coming decades, as the slowdown in population growth coincides with rising life expectancy and declining fertility, making immigration one of the key factors influencing the size of the workforce and the economy's ability to fund public services.