هل تجاوز الاقتصاد العالمي صدمة الطاقة؟ غورغييفا تجيب

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, stated today that the global economy is overcoming the energy shock caused by the war in Iran better than expected, but she expressed concern about the deterioration of financial conditions in some countries, as evidenced by rising bond yields and the stalling of the inflation slowdown.

Growing Financial Pressures

Georgieva said in a briefing to reporters ahead of the upcoming G20 finance ministers meeting scheduled for next week in Asheville, North Carolina, USA: "There is a tug-of-war between the negative shock of energy supplies from the Gulf and the growth-supporting factors resulting from the investment boom in artificial intelligence, which is beginning to extend beyond the borders of the United States." She noted that the risks threatening global forecasts have become more balanced than they were in April, but they still lean towards the negative side due to growing financial pressures and the possibility of central banks maintaining a tightening monetary policy to control inflation.

Strong Obstacles

Georgieva added: "Global growth is resisting strong obstacles stemming from high levels of debt, stubborn inflation, and trade tensions, but it has so far surpassed the energy shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz better than we feared, thanks to a range of factors." These factors include many countries drawing from oil and gas reserves, increasing energy supplies from outside the Gulf region, declining energy demand, boosting renewable energy capacities, and a return to coal-fired electricity generation in some areas. She indicated that investments in artificial intelligence within the United States are sustaining corporate profits and consumer spending, while other countries are intensifying the construction of data centers and supplies of artificial intelligence equipment.

Wave of Increases

She continued: "The energy shock is not over yet; a new wave of rising oil prices could feed inflation, forcing central banks to maintain tightening monetary policies, with consequent implications for debt servicing costs and economic activity." She noted that all countries need to address their financial issues and develop and present credible plans to ensure that their debts and deficits are on a sustainable path." Georgieva did not name specific countries regarding the need to adjust their financial conditions, but her remarks came after U.S. Treasury yields on 30-year bonds rose last week to their highest levels in 19 years, prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Pessen to make a surprising announcement about doubling long-term bond buybacks in an attempt to reduce borrowing costs.