الرهان عليكم

The Middle East has witnessed many changes in the past few months, resulting in radical transformations in several countries such as Syria, where the fallen Baath regime has ended and will not return, just as the Iraqi Baath Party fell nearly two decades ago. Lebanon has also seen a significant transformation with the collapse of Hezbollah and the killing of many of its leaders, a party that remained a strong ally of the fallen Syrian regime and some regional powers for more than four decades. It is certain that the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime led to the collapse of the party, which received substantial support from both the father and son Assad regimes.

These transformations in Syria and Lebanon can certainly be described as positive; they have restored Syria to the regional alliance, especially with the Gulf Arab states, which experienced tension particularly during the last decade. Syria has been liberated from the Baath rule that dominated the Syrian scene for more than five decades, and the new regime in Syria has shown goodwill towards the countries in the region, which has prompted Saudi Arabia, with its political and economic weight, to contribute to lifting the sanctions that have been imposed on Syria for many years.

In Lebanon, President Joseph Aoun has reached the presidency after the absence of the Lebanese presidential authority for years due to the Syrian regime's control over various aspects of political life in Lebanon. With the disintegration of the Syrian regime, Lebanon has been freed from the dominance of the Syrian Baath and some regional powers. Undoubtedly, the Lebanese people have the right to rejoice at the demise of this regime, which burdened them with its interference in political and economic matters, affecting Lebanon's relations with some countries in the region. One of the signs of Lebanese relief is the presidency of Nawaf Salam over the Lebanese government, an academic, judge, and seasoned politician who maintains strong relations with many Arab and Western countries, which will contribute to Lebanon's stability in both the near and distant future.

So far, the governments of Syria and Lebanon have shown a sincere desire to restore stability to both countries and rebuild bridges of friendship between them and the world, especially the Arab countries. Perhaps the first steps that will pave the way for Lebanon's stability are the Lebanese government's control over every inch of its territory and the disarmament of Hezbollah and any other forces to confine arms and political decision-making solely in the hands of the state and legitimate government. The continued dominance of Hezbollah over arms will undermine all efforts by the Lebanese government aimed at stabilizing the country and will open the door wide for other external powers to intervene in Lebanese affairs as has been the case for decades.

From 1975 until the fall of the Baath Party, the Syrian presence was deeply entrenched in Lebanese affairs, exploiting the security turmoil resulting from the Lebanese civil war. With the establishment of Hezbollah in 1982, the Baath regime provided its full support to the party to serve the Syrian government's objectives in Lebanon. Following the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon—after international pressures that followed the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri—Hezbollah became the real agenda for achieving the goals of the Syrian Baath government, and the Lebanese citizen was the primary victim of such external infiltration.

The continuation of regional support for Syria and Lebanon is contingent upon the stability of both regimes. The countries of the world cannot provide any support to troubled governments or those suffering from civil wars, as the ultimate goal of support is to protect the people and maintain their stability. The absence of a stable government in any country will pose an obstacle to many matters, including tourism, economic activity, and even political matters. Syria and Lebanon have a historic opportunity that has been absent for decades, the first of which is to rid themselves of the dominance of some external powers over the two countries and to end the presence of Hezbollah.

Lebanon is a country rich in its tourism potential, and the opportunity is now golden and historic for Syria and Lebanon to stabilize. Yes, there are more efforts that the governments of Lebanon and Syria must undertake to achieve stability, but the support of the Syrian and Lebanese peoples for their governments is sufficient for both current governments to achieve their goals. Without this popular support, Syria and Lebanon will remain vulnerable to external intervention as before. Therefore, the real bet for the stability of Syria and Lebanon lies with their peoples; both the Syrian and Lebanese people must rally around their leaderships and not gamble on any other forces seeking to dismantle the internal front.