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The Triffin Dilemma is one of the most important concepts that helps us understand the structural contradictions in the global monetary system dominated by the dollar. Economist Robert Triffin explained that any national currency that becomes an international reserve currency will inevitably face a dual dilemma. This dilemma consists of either the issuing country exporting large quantities of that currency to the world through its trade and financial deficits, which threatens confidence in the value of its currency, or it restricts issuance and maintains internal balance, which leads to a shortage of international liquidity and paralyzes global trade and investment.

This contradiction has manifested over decades in the case of the United States, which has played a central role in supplying the world with dollars since the Bretton Woods Agreement to the present day. Despite the recurring internal debate about it, the American trade deficit constitutes the main channel that ensures the flow of dollars into the global economy, and any attempt to eliminate it will necessarily lead to a decline in international liquidity in dollars, which threatens the fundamental pillar of its dominance as a reserve currency.

Here, the Triffin Dilemma intersects with the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump is waging a trade war against most countries in the world, imposing high tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of imported goods, claiming that this will reduce the massive trade deficit and bring jobs and industries back to the U.S. Those who follow American political discourse find that it has portrayed the trade balance deficit as evidence of external exploitation and internal weakness. However, from Triffin's perspective, this deficit is not a flaw as much as it is a function that the United States performs in service of the global financial system since its currency is the world's primary trade currency.

Experience has shown that tariffs have not led to a substantial contraction in the American trade deficit; in some years, the deficit has actually widened due to the increased cost of imports and the decline in exports as a result of retaliatory policies from trading partners. The global market inherently needs the dollar, and the trade deficit is the tool that allows these dollars to flow out; therefore, any attempt to artificially curb this deficit will collide with the rest of the world's need for dollar liquidity, and thus the deficit remains entrenched regardless of the various protectionist policies.

What Trump has done is closer to a struggle against the very logic of the dilemma itself. While he sought to achieve internal trade balance, he faced an international inevitability that imposes a different role on the United States. This explains why his policies have not succeeded in changing the equation, as global balances are stronger than temporary tariff decisions.

Today, as the debate about the future of the dollar renews in light of the rise of many global currencies, led by the Chinese yuan and the euro, and the growing calls for a multipolar monetary system, the Triffin Dilemma remains present as a framework that explains these contradictions. The dollar continues to flow through rising American deficits, and protectionist policies have proven limited in the face of globalization forces and international demand for the American currency.

The deficit that Trump sees as a "flaw" is, in fact, the price Washington pays for the privilege of maintaining its currency as the world's primary reserve currency. Thus, the relationship between Trump's tariff policies and the Triffin Dilemma reveals that the struggle between the domestic and the foreign is not a mere political issue, but a structural dilemma rooted in the nature of the global monetary system.