يتوعّد الرئيس دونالد ترمب بحل النزاع بين أوكرانيا وروسيا مذ كان مرشحاً رئاسياً، ويشير إلى رغبته في الوصول لاتفاق نووي أو أكثر من نووي مع إيران منذ أن عاد إلى البيت الأبيض.
ويعلم الكثيرون عن دونالد ترمب، مؤلف كتاب فن الصفقة، أنه يهدف دائماً للوصول إلى صفقة، وأنه يرنو للحصول على نوبل للسلام منذ فترته الأولى ولقائه بالرئيس الكوري الشمالي، مما يجعل بعض الوعود العسكرية غير مخيفة للبعض، وإن كان قصف الحوثيين ودعم معارك نتنياهو في بداية فترته.
وبينما كان يسعى لحل النزاع الأوكراني الروسي في ٢٤ ساعة، ثم نجح في تحقيق اتفاق المعادن مع كييف، بدا أن الأوروبيين وخاصة ألمانيا وفرنسا بالإضافة للخصم التاريخي للروس بريطانيا غير مقتنعين بإيقاف الحرب، أو تقديم تنازلات للقيصر سواء عن شبه جزيرة القرم أو أجزاء من الشرق الأوكراني ذي الأغلبية الروسية.
من جانب آخر ورغم التراجع الكبير في نفوذها في المنطقة، سواء عبر خسارة الأسد البالغة التكلفة في سوريا، أو ما تعرض له حزب الله من خسارات متتالية في لبنان،
ما زالت جولات المفاوضات الأمريكية الإيرانية لم ترَ النور بعد، رغم عدة جولات بين روما ومسقط تضاربت الأنباء حولها بين تقدم وعقد للحل.
كما أن فرص الحل في غزة وإخراج الرهائن وتحقيق إيقاف دائم لوقف إطلاق النار لم يتحقق بعد، حيث يبدو من جهة نتنياهو أن الاستمرار في الحرب تحت أي مسوغ خيار مثالي لمستقبله السياسي، ويبدو أن حماس وجدت في تفاوض الأمريكيين مع الحوثيين فرصة لتحسين شروط التفاوض، وتجاوز أي شرط يخرج حماس من الحل السياسي.
وفي وسط تعقيد هذه الملفات الثلاثة والسعي الحثيث للإدارة الأمريكية لحسمها معاً، يأتي تحرك مهم على رقعة الشطرنج، حيث يتوجه الرئيس بوتين إلى طهران، ويعرض وساطة بين الإيرانيين والأمريكيين للوصول لحل سلمي للاتفاق النووي.
هذا التحرك يدعونا للتفكر في نقطة مختلفة، وهي كيف يدير مفاوضو ترمب فن الصفقة معه، سواء كانوا صنّاع سجاد أم محترفي شطرنج، فكل لعبة لها طرفان، وكل فعل له ردة فعل كما علمنا نيوتن في الفيزياء.
الأرجح أن الرئيس فلاديمير بوتين يراهن على خفوت العلاقات الأمريكية الأوروبية، وعلى رغبة الرئيس الأمريكي الشديدة في إنهاء الحروب والملفات الخلافية، ليقدم عرضاً قد تتنازل فيه إيران أكثر، ربما عبر نسب تخصيب اليورانيوم دون 3.76 (النسبة التي سمح بها اتفاق أوباما)، أو بجعله اتفاقاً لآجال أطول من 25 سنة كما يهدف المبعوث الأمريكي ويتكوف.
ولا بد أن ثمّن ذلك سيكون ضم شبه جزيرة القرم، ومنع أوكرانيا من دخول الناتو بتاتاً، بالإضافة لرفع شامل للعقوبات عن روسيا، وربما قضم بعض الشرق الأوكراني، وهي فرصة لنختبر ردود الفعل في فن الصفقة.
تابع قناة عكاظ على الواتساب
President Donald Trump has vowed to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia since he was a presidential candidate, and he has expressed his desire to reach a nuclear agreement or more than one nuclear agreement with Iran since returning to the White House.
Many know about Donald Trump, the author of "The Art of the Deal," that he always aims to reach a deal, and that he has aspired to win the Nobel Peace Prize since his first term and his meeting with the North Korean president, which makes some military promises less intimidating for some, even though the bombing of the Houthis and support for Netanyahu's battles at the beginning of his term were notable.
While he sought to resolve the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in 24 hours, and then succeeded in achieving a mineral agreement with Kyiv, it seemed that the Europeans, especially Germany and France, along with Russia's historical rival Britain, were not convinced about stopping the war or making concessions to the Tsar regarding Crimea or parts of eastern Ukraine with a Russian majority.
On the other hand, despite the significant decline in its influence in the region, whether through Assad's costly losses in Syria or the consecutive losses suffered by Hezbollah in Lebanon,
the rounds of American-Iranian negotiations have yet to see the light, despite several rounds between Rome and Muscat, where reports have conflicted about progress and setbacks in reaching a solution.
Moreover, the chances for a solution in Gaza, the release of hostages, and achieving a permanent ceasefire have not yet been realized, as it seems from Netanyahu's side that continuing the war under any pretext is an ideal option for his political future, and it appears that Hamas has found in the Americans' negotiations with the Houthis an opportunity to improve negotiation terms and bypass any condition that would exclude Hamas from the political solution.
Amid the complexity of these three files and the American administration's relentless efforts to resolve them together, an important move on the chessboard comes as President Putin heads to Tehran, offering mediation between the Iranians and Americans to reach a peaceful solution for the nuclear agreement.
This move invites us to reflect on a different point, which is how Trump's negotiators manage the art of the deal with him, whether they are carpet makers or chess professionals, as every game has two sides, and every action has a reaction, as Newton taught us in physics.
It is likely that President Vladimir Putin is betting on the waning of American-European relations and on the American president's strong desire to end wars and contentious issues, to present an offer in which Iran might concede more, perhaps by allowing uranium enrichment levels below 3.76 (the level permitted by the Obama agreement), or by making it an agreement for longer terms than 25 years, as the American envoy is aiming for.
And it must be that the price for this would be the annexation of Crimea, completely preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, in addition to a comprehensive lifting of sanctions on Russia, and perhaps nibbling away at some of eastern Ukraine, which is an opportunity to test the reactions in the art of the deal.
Many know about Donald Trump, the author of "The Art of the Deal," that he always aims to reach a deal, and that he has aspired to win the Nobel Peace Prize since his first term and his meeting with the North Korean president, which makes some military promises less intimidating for some, even though the bombing of the Houthis and support for Netanyahu's battles at the beginning of his term were notable.
While he sought to resolve the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in 24 hours, and then succeeded in achieving a mineral agreement with Kyiv, it seemed that the Europeans, especially Germany and France, along with Russia's historical rival Britain, were not convinced about stopping the war or making concessions to the Tsar regarding Crimea or parts of eastern Ukraine with a Russian majority.
On the other hand, despite the significant decline in its influence in the region, whether through Assad's costly losses in Syria or the consecutive losses suffered by Hezbollah in Lebanon,
the rounds of American-Iranian negotiations have yet to see the light, despite several rounds between Rome and Muscat, where reports have conflicted about progress and setbacks in reaching a solution.
Moreover, the chances for a solution in Gaza, the release of hostages, and achieving a permanent ceasefire have not yet been realized, as it seems from Netanyahu's side that continuing the war under any pretext is an ideal option for his political future, and it appears that Hamas has found in the Americans' negotiations with the Houthis an opportunity to improve negotiation terms and bypass any condition that would exclude Hamas from the political solution.
Amid the complexity of these three files and the American administration's relentless efforts to resolve them together, an important move on the chessboard comes as President Putin heads to Tehran, offering mediation between the Iranians and Americans to reach a peaceful solution for the nuclear agreement.
This move invites us to reflect on a different point, which is how Trump's negotiators manage the art of the deal with him, whether they are carpet makers or chess professionals, as every game has two sides, and every action has a reaction, as Newton taught us in physics.
It is likely that President Vladimir Putin is betting on the waning of American-European relations and on the American president's strong desire to end wars and contentious issues, to present an offer in which Iran might concede more, perhaps by allowing uranium enrichment levels below 3.76 (the level permitted by the Obama agreement), or by making it an agreement for longer terms than 25 years, as the American envoy is aiming for.
And it must be that the price for this would be the annexation of Crimea, completely preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, in addition to a comprehensive lifting of sanctions on Russia, and perhaps nibbling away at some of eastern Ukraine, which is an opportunity to test the reactions in the art of the deal.
