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As the "Yemen Dawn" operation enters its second month, and military confrontations expand in Al-Jawf, Marib, Taiz, and the western coast, other dimensions of the threat posed by the Houthi militia are emerging, extending beyond the Yemeni frontlines to the opposite shore of the Red Sea.

While the group faces escalating military pressures domestically, security and international reports indicate a network of communications and activities related to arms smuggling, training, and coordination with armed groups in the Horn of Africa, within a framework that provides Iran with additional opportunities to expand its influence in one of the world's most sensitive maritime corridors. Recent field developments are shedding light on the nature of the Houthi project and its regional extensions, especially with the announcement by the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, in a statement marking one month since the launch of "Yemen Dawn," that more than 40,000 targeting operations have been carried out since October 5, as part of a military campaign aimed at weakening the militia's capabilities and restoring state institutions and strategic locations.

Influence Beyond Borders

The signs of Houthi activity in the Horn of Africa began through traditional smuggling networks linking the Yemeni coasts to Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea, before these relationships took on a more organized nature following the militia's control of Sana'a in 2014. With the development of their missile capabilities and the use of drones, these networks gained increasing importance in military and security influence calculations. Specialized reports indicate Houthi efforts to build communication channels with armed groups and local figures in several Horn of Africa countries, taking advantage of irregular trade, smuggling, and migration, alongside the complex security conditions experienced by some countries in the region. These movements gain their seriousness from the geographical location of the Horn of Africa, which overlooks maritime corridors connected to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, where vital trade routes linking Asian markets to Europe pass. Any expansion of armed group activities on both sides of the Red Sea raises the likelihood of maritime disruption and increases the security and economic burdens on regional countries and shipping companies.

Arms Alliances and Extremist Organizations

The relationship between the Houthis and the Somali Al-Shabaab movement stands out as one of the most prominent indicators of the expansion of Houthi activity outside Yemen. A United Nations expert team revealed in its 2025 report the growing cooperation between the two parties in arms smuggling, technical training, and logistical support exchange, warning of the implications of this relationship on regional security and stability. Information gathered by the experts indicates that the cooperation included the exchange of military expertise and the development of capabilities related to weapons and field operations, at a time when Al-Shabaab is seeking to enhance its arsenal and expand its sources of armament. This relationship brings back concerns about the transfer of drone technologies and explosives to organizations operating in unstable security environments, and the potential escalation of armed attacks threatening ports, vital facilities, and shipping movements in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Yemeni security reports have mentioned the role of Houthi figures in managing communications with African groups, including Abdul Wahid Naji Abu Ras, whose name appeared in a report published by the Organized Crime and Money Laundering Observatory in 2024, as one of the figures linked to the group's external expansion file.

The Revolutionary Guard and Tehran's Calculations

The Iranian role is present in the background of this expansion, through military and technical support and the connections that link the Houthis to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. This relationship gives Tehran the ability to influence the security balances surrounding the Red Sea, especially with the escalation of regional tensions and the increasing importance of maritime corridors in confrontation calculations. UN reports indicate the continued activity of foreign elements and experts in areas controlled by the Houthis, providing technical advice related to missiles and drones, while the group retains its local apparatus responsible for managing operations and field movements. Through this overlap, Iran's ability to exert pressure through its armed allies expands, while maintaining varying levels of direct responsibility for activities carried out on the ground. The importance of this equation increases in light of the strategic interconnection between the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, as any simultaneous disruption in both corridors poses a broad threat to energy supplies and global trade, presenting international navigation security with challenges that exceed the boundaries of the Yemeni conflict.

Al-Hudaydah and the African Shore

Al-Hudaydah occupies a highly significant position in Houthi calculations, given its oversight of the Red Sea and its connection to internal routes leading to areas under the group's control. This geography grants it military and logistical importance, especially with ongoing confrontations along the western coast. On the African shore, the coasts extending from Eritrea to Somalia provide multiple maritime routes, where legitimate commercial activities intertwine with arms and human trafficking networks. This environment offers opportunities for armed groups and informal intermediaries, benefiting from varying regulatory capacities and security challenges in some areas. In Sudan, the ongoing war and complexities in controlling ports and land routes add new challenges to the security of the Red Sea, while Eritrea's geography, close to Bab el-Mandeb, gives special importance to any cross-coastal activity. These data raise concerns about the exploitation of security-vulnerable areas in building supply networks and armed connections, especially with the increasing need to monitor the movement of arms and military-use equipment between the shores of the Red Sea.

"Yemen Dawn" and the Future of Houthi Networks

As the "Yemen Dawn" operation continues, attention turns to the ability of government forces to weaken the military structure of the Houthis, secure the reclaimed areas, and cut off supply routes that help the group compensate for its losses. Developments in Al-Jawf, Marib, Taiz, and the western coast gain particular importance, given the connection of these fronts to movement and supply lines and the military sites that the group relies on to manage its operations. Conversely, the increasing field pressures place the Houthis before challenges related to maintaining their military capabilities and external networks, amid the likelihood of resorting to maritime escalation or expanding cooperation with armed parties outside Yemen to enhance their leverage. These developments indicate that addressing the Houthi threat is linked to two parallel paths: the first relates to restoring Yemeni state institutions and their control over their territories and outlets, while the second is connected to enhancing regional and international cooperation to monitor smuggling networks and prevent the transfer of arms and military expertise to extremist organizations. As the confrontation in Yemen expands, the importance of the Horn of Africa in the region's security calculations increases.