خلافات حول حرب إيران وخطة غزة.. هل يتجه ترمب ونتنياهو نحو الصدام؟

The alliance between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing an increasing political test, with rising disputes over the future of the Gaza Strip and the war with Iran.

As Trump seeks to achieve foreign policy successes ahead of the midterm congressional elections in November, Netanyahu is trying to maintain the support of his right-wing base and hardline partners before the elections scheduled for October.

Conflicting Electoral Calculations

The Washington Post revealed that the disagreement became clear after Netanyahu rejected a U.S. plan for a ceasefire in Gaza, despite Trump announcing that Israel and Hamas had agreed to it. Netanyahu insists on the complete disarmament of Hamas and the destruction of its tunnels before any Israeli withdrawal from the areas controlled by Israel within the strip.

Netanyahu faces a difficult equation between maintaining his relationship with Trump and not angering the far-right within his coalition, as any concession in Gaza could be portrayed domestically as a victory for Hamas, while challenging the U.S. president could harm Israel's most important strategic relationship.

Israeli polls indicate that Netanyahu may face difficulties in forming a new coalition as opposition forces gain ground. He is also facing criticism regarding his responsibility for the failures of October 7, 2023, along with the continuation of his trial on corruption charges.

On the other hand, Trump needs to make progress on foreign policy issues, especially as his efforts related to Iran and Ukraine have stalled, amid economic pressures and rising sensitivity among Americans regarding energy prices and the cost of living.

Disputes Over Iran

According to the Associated Press, the divergence is not limited to Gaza; disagreements have also emerged regarding how to deal with Iran and Hezbollah. While Israel pushes for continued strikes, Trump seeks to contain the conflict and apply economic pressure on Tehran, while reopening the Strait of Hormuz and mitigating the confrontation's effects on energy markets.
Former officials believe that Netanyahu has tried to push Washington towards expanding the war, but Trump has become more inclined to economic pressure and diplomacy, reflecting an increasing divergence in the priorities of both parties.

Declining Strength of the Alliance

Netanyahu has long benefited from his close relationship with Trump to bolster his domestic standing, while the U.S. president has provided broad support for Israel. However, this closeness has begun to lose some of its momentum with the divergence of positions on Gaza and Iran.
Analysts warn that Netanyahu's insistence on challenging Trump could weaken Israel's ability to maneuver diplomatically, while Washington's inability to push Israel to implement its plan could harm the credibility of U.S. influence in the Middle East.

A Test for the Peace Council

The disagreement puts the "Peace Council" led by Trump to a real test, as the council's success largely depends on its ability to implement ceasefire arrangements, rebuild Gaza, and deploy an international stabilization force.
Diplomats and experts believe that Netanyahu's rejection raises questions about Washington's ability to exert actual influence over its ally Tel Aviv, while negotiations continue behind the scenes.
In the end, Netanyahu may find himself forced to reconcile his electoral and domestic calculations with his need to maintain Trump's support, while the U.S. president faces a similar test to prove his ability to impose settlements in the region.