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The "Wall Street Journal" revealed that Russia is facing a decline in its military and political influence on the African continent following the failure of the mercenary group "Wagner" and the defection of its founder, which led to a loss of control in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. However, it is seeking to compensate through the "African Legion," at a time when Western powers are planning to regain their influence in the Sahel.

According to the American newspaper, the new military force established by the Kremlin under the name "African Legion," composed of hired militants, has failed to replicate the financial successes and political influence enjoyed by the private military contractor "Wagner."

Buyer's Remorse

It reported that some of "Wagner's" investments in Africa since 2023 have unraveled after its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, rebelled against Russian President Vladimir Putin, before he met his demise in an explosion that took down his aircraft at an altitude of 28,000 feet.

An American military official stated that the ruling military councils in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso now feel what he described as "buyer's remorse," after expelling American and French forces over the past three years and turning, to varying degrees, to Moscow for assistance in combating al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Regaining a Foothold

Strategic experts at the U.S. Department of Defense, particularly those constrained by laws and policies that limit security support to military governments, express hope of marginalizing the Russians and regaining a foothold in the security domain in West Africa.

The newspaper noted that this shift reflects the decline of Russian influence in the Sahel, which extends through Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and beyond.

Security experts and Western officials believe that Russian intervention has contributed to worsening the security situation in the region, to the extent that the Sahel has become today a "more intensely" contested battleground in the global confrontation between extremists on one side and the West and its allies on the other.

The "Africa Center for Strategic Studies," funded by the Pentagon, estimated that around 11,000 people fell victim to violence linked to armed insurgency in the Sahel last year, nearly half of whom were in direct confrontations.

Preoccupation with the Ukraine War

According to European security officials, Moscow's struggles in Africa reveal the limits of its capabilities, given that its best combat units are preoccupied with the war in Ukraine.

An investigation published in August by the team "The Sentry," a research group working to combat corruption and illicit financial flows, indicated that the mission of "Wagner" mercenaries had indeed turned into a "disastrous failure" by the time reinforcements from the "African Legion" arrived.

The "Wagner" mercenaries had hoped to reap significant profits from their activities in Africa, but found themselves unable to even access one of the largest gold mines in Mali, which they had planned to exploit, due to insecurity in the region.

Analysts from "The Sentry" reported that "Wagner has not received its payments for months and has failed to access lucrative natural resources, considering that its presence in Mali" was not a viable investment for any party.

Wagner's Failures

The executive director of "The Sentry," Justina Gudzowska, stated that Wagner's failures in Mali should serve as a wake-up call for other regimes in Africa, that Russia is not a reliable partner nor a quick solution to your problems.

The Kremlin sent the "African Legion," affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, to mend relations with the authorities in Bamako, but this did not last long, as a joint convoy of the "African Legion" and Malian fighters was ambushed just one week later in the northern desert of the country. Fighters from the "Tuareg," who sometimes fight alongside extremists, destroyed half of the 40 vehicles in the convoy and killed dozens of fighters, according to European officials.

A New Opportunity for the West

The "Wall Street Journal" considered that the challenges facing Moscow create a new opportunity for Western powers to regain influence and access to the Sahel region, after losing it following military coups.

In Niger, a coup in 2023 ousted a pro-Western president, as Russian military trainers initially stationed at an airbase last year, following the departure of specialized French and American counter-terrorism forces from the country.

The military contractor Prince, a ally of President Donald Trump, recently visited the Nigerien capital Niamey and offered to provide counter-terrorism services.

In July, Rudolph Atala, a counter-terrorism advisor in the Trump administration, visited Mali to offer American support.