ماذا يحدث في ليبيا ؟

Amid fears of slipping into a new spiral of civil war, the clashes in Tripoli have brought back scenes of chaos and security and political division in Libya to the forefront, following a relative security stability since the signing of the Geneva Agreement in 2021.

The Libyan capital witnessed bloody confrontations between the "444 Combat Brigade" forces affiliated with the Government of National Unity and the "Deterrence Force" led by Abdul Raouf Kara, which has been nominally under the Presidential Council since 2018.

The battles resulted in casualties and destruction following the issuance of decisions by the internationally recognized Government of National Unity to restructure some security agencies in the capital and remove their leaders.

The clashes followed the killing of field commander Abdul Ghani al-Kikli (Ghneiwa) during an official meeting at the headquarters of the "444 Combat Brigade," and the government's control over all of its security headquarters, which some viewed as an attempt by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh to expand his control over the entire western region, especially since the Ministry of Defense managed to implement a ceasefire officially on Thursday evening and deployed neutral security units at several contact points to avoid further loss of life and property after fighting extended to vital areas within Tripoli.

The Prime Minister issued a decision to dissolve the "parallel security agencies," emphasizing that "a firm hand will be used" against violators during a high-level security meeting last Tuesday, attended by the acting Minister of Interior, Major General Imad Mustafa al-Tarabulsi, Deputy Minister of Defense Abdul Salam al-Zubi, and the commander of the "444 Combat Brigade," Major General Mahmoud Hamza. The Government of National Unity is seeking to restructure the security scene as a first step to implement the American plan presented by Washington to Tripoli last February, aimed at forming a unified military force to undertake counter-terrorism and migration tasks under the umbrella of a unified army that follows the Government of National Unity.

However, the President of the Presidential Council, Mohamed Menfi, rejected these measures and quickly moved to freeze the decisions of the Government of National Unity, even considering it an illegitimate government that has no right to continue carrying out its duties. Meanwhile, the government denied rumors of resignations among its members.

But what are the reasons for this escalation?

In light of international pressures, Dbeibeh's government is trying to redistribute security influence in Tripoli in its favor before the upcoming entitlements, especially after discussions about an American plan to support a unified security force in western Libya.

The "Deterrence Forces" fear losing their legitimacy, influence, and positions that they have held since the years of the revolution, fearing exposure to international trials regarding the human rights violations they are accused of, following the request of the International Criminal Court's prosecutor, Karim Khan, for the Public Prosecution of the Government of National Unity to hand over the commander of the Judicial Police, the head of Mitiga Prison, Osama Najim, for international trial.

The renewed conflict reflects the magnitude of the political crisis and the absence of a state of institutions, as well as

revealing the fragility of the security situation in Tripoli, which remains hostage to armed groups. Additionally, it deepens the state of political stagnation and hinders the United Nations' faltering efforts to resume the stalled electoral process.

The recent confrontations have heightened fears among the Libyan public of the return of the specter of civil war, especially with the growing political division between the east and west, which threatens to collapse efforts aimed at finding a peaceful political solution and preventing a slide back into chaos and war once again.