مصر: توقعات مفاجئة لأسعار الفائدة والتضخم

Goldman Sachs expects the Central Bank of Egypt to raise interest rates by 2% during the upcoming meetings in May and July, amid rising inflation risks driven by increasing energy prices and continued pressure on supply chains, in the absence of clear indicators for a near easing of the conflict in the Middle East.

Rising Pressures

Goldman Sachs has raised its inflation forecasts following the release of February's inflation data, which was higher than expected, along with the anticipation that the impact of rising energy prices will transfer to local prices after the outbreak of war in the region, especially after local fuel prices were raised by up to 17% in March.

The bank stated: "The bank's commodity research team has also raised its global oil price forecasts, with additional indicators of rising inflationary pressures locally, including an increase in train and metro ticket prices by up to 25%, as well as a sharp rise in the cost of fertilizers locally in line with global prices, which has begun to reflect on the prices of major agricultural commodities, indicating an expected acceleration in food inflation over the coming weeks and months."

Exchange Rate

The Goldman Sachs report noted that the nominal effective exchange rate of the pound has declined by about 11% since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, which will add further pressure on prices.

The bank now expects the annual inflation rate to peak at 17.6% in August, an increase of nearly 3% from its previous estimates.

It is anticipated that inflation will reach around 16.8% by the end of the year, compared to 13.4% in its previous forecasts, before declining to below 10% in the second half of 2027.