كل المعطيات خلال الأيام الماضية كانت تنبئ بحدث كبير في المنطقة، المفاوضات بين أمريكا وإيران متعثرة، تكرار تصريحات الرئيس ترمب أنه غير مسموح أبداً بامتلاك إيران سلاحاً نووياً وبأي طريقة تحقق ذلك، قرار وكالة الطاقة الذرية بأن إيران تنتهك التزاماتها النووية وتخصّب اليورانيوم بنسبة قريبة من صنع قنبلة نووية، إعلان أمريكا إخلاء موظفي سفاراتها في بعض دول المنطقة، ورغم هذا التأزيم لم يتغير موقف إيران بإصرارها على حقها في تطوير برنامجها النووي، فسنحت الفرصة التي تتمناها إسرائيل لتنفيذ هجوم كبير غير مسبوق على إيران، سبق التخطيط له، ووصفته بالاستباقي، فهل لو كانت إيران أبدت مرونة أكثر في مفاوضاتها مع أمريكا بشأن الملف النووي، وقدمت بعض التنازلات المشروطة لكسب الوقت وتهدئة التوتر المتصاعد، هل كانت ستحول دون الهجوم عليها؟
لا يمكن الجزم بذلك، لأن المفاوضات لم يُغلق بابها بعد، والعالم كان بانتظار ما سوف تسفر عنه الجولة التي كانت مقررة اليوم، لكن إسرائيل لم يكن بوسعها تفويت فرصة كهذه، فأي تقدم إيجابي في المفاوضات سوف يجعل أمريكا تتراجع أو تعيد النظر في موافقتها على مهاجمة إيران، ستكون في حرج حقيقي أمام المجتمع الدولي، ولذلك شنت إسرائيل هجومها الكبير في وقت ملتبس، وعندما وصفته بالاستباقي فإن ذلك لا يعني وجود معلومات مؤكدة بأن إيران ستشن هجوماً وشيكاً عليها، وإنما استباقاً لاحتمال تغير موقف إيران إيجابياً في المفاوضات القادمة.
لقد كرست إسرائيل سرديتها بأن إيران هي الخطر الوجودي عليها، وأن مشروعها النووي يستهدف في الأساس تدميرها وإزالتها من الخارطة، وهذا غير ممكن عملياً حتى لو كانت إيران تردد شعارات صاخبة ضد إسرائيل منذ زمن طويل. إيران ليست متاخمة لإسرائيل حتى تشكل خطراً جغرافياً عليها، وقد قامت منذ العام الماضي بتعطيل وتحييد التنظيمات التابعة لها وفي مقدمتها حزب الله، كما أن إيران لا تملك التفوق العسكري النوعي على إسرائيل في ميزان القوة العسكرية الذي يجعلها خطراً وجودياً عليها، إسرائيل هي التي تملك التفوق بالعتاد الأمريكي المتطور الذي تخصها به أمريكا دون سواها، ولذلك فإن تبرير إسرائيل لهجومها بأنه استباقي لمنع الخطر عليها لا يمكن استساغته. الخطر الحقيقي يتمثل في تسويغ استخدام القوة العسكرية والاعتداء على أي دولة مهما كانت طبيعة الاختلاف معها، لمجرد توقع احتمالات غير مؤكدة بشكل قطعي، وتجاهل وانتهاك القوانين والأعراف الدولية، وهذا ما فعلته إسرائيل.
لقد اشتعل حريق كبير في المنطقة، نتائجه خلال يومين فقط في منتهى الخطورة، واستمراره دون احتواء عاجل سيؤدي إلى مآلات مرعبة، ولكن كيف يمكن احتواؤه مع الانحياز المعلن لبعض الدول المؤثرة في المجتمع الدولي لإسرائيل، وفي مقدمتها الدولة الأقوى والأهم: أمريكا؟ هذا هو السؤال المقلق.
حمود أبوطالب
إسرائيل وإيران.. اشتعال الحريق الكبير
15 يونيو 2025 - 00:06
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آخر تحديث 15 يونيو 2025 - 00:06
تابع قناة عكاظ على الواتساب
All the data over the past few days indicated a significant event in the region. The negotiations between America and Iran are stalled, with President Trump repeatedly stating that Iran is never allowed to possess nuclear weapons by any means. The decision by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran is violating its nuclear commitments and enriching uranium at a level close to producing a nuclear bomb, the announcement by America to evacuate its embassy staff in some countries in the region, and despite this escalation, Iran's position has not changed, insisting on its right to develop its nuclear program. This has provided the opportunity that Israel has been hoping for to carry out an unprecedented large-scale attack on Iran, which had been planned in advance and described as preemptive. If Iran had shown more flexibility in its negotiations with America regarding the nuclear file and made some conditional concessions to buy time and calm the rising tensions, would it have prevented the attack on it?
It cannot be definitively stated, as the door to negotiations has not yet been closed, and the world was waiting for the outcome of the round that was scheduled for today. However, Israel could not miss such an opportunity; any positive progress in the negotiations would lead America to reconsider or withdraw its approval for attacking Iran, putting it in a real dilemma before the international community. Therefore, Israel launched its major attack at a confusing time, and when it described it as preemptive, it did not mean there was confirmed information that Iran would launch an imminent attack on it, but rather as a preemptive measure against the possibility of Iran's position changing positively in the upcoming negotiations.
Israel has dedicated itself to the narrative that Iran is the existential threat to it, and that its nuclear project primarily aims to destroy it and erase it from the map. This is practically impossible even if Iran has been chanting loud slogans against Israel for a long time. Iran is not adjacent to Israel to pose a geographical threat to it, and since last year, it has been neutralizing and disabling its affiliated organizations, foremost among them Hezbollah. Moreover, Iran does not possess the qualitative military superiority over Israel in the military balance that would make it an existential threat to it. Israel is the one that possesses the advantage of advanced American equipment that America provides exclusively to it. Therefore, Israel's justification for its attack as preemptive to prevent a threat to it cannot be justified. The real danger lies in justifying the use of military force and aggression against any country, regardless of the nature of the disagreement with it, merely based on uncertain predictions, while ignoring and violating international laws and norms, which is what Israel has done.
A significant fire has erupted in the region, with consequences that are extremely dangerous within just two days. Its continuation without urgent containment will lead to terrifying outcomes. But how can it be contained with the declared bias of some influential countries in the international community towards Israel, foremost among them the strongest and most important country: America? This is the troubling question.
It cannot be definitively stated, as the door to negotiations has not yet been closed, and the world was waiting for the outcome of the round that was scheduled for today. However, Israel could not miss such an opportunity; any positive progress in the negotiations would lead America to reconsider or withdraw its approval for attacking Iran, putting it in a real dilemma before the international community. Therefore, Israel launched its major attack at a confusing time, and when it described it as preemptive, it did not mean there was confirmed information that Iran would launch an imminent attack on it, but rather as a preemptive measure against the possibility of Iran's position changing positively in the upcoming negotiations.
Israel has dedicated itself to the narrative that Iran is the existential threat to it, and that its nuclear project primarily aims to destroy it and erase it from the map. This is practically impossible even if Iran has been chanting loud slogans against Israel for a long time. Iran is not adjacent to Israel to pose a geographical threat to it, and since last year, it has been neutralizing and disabling its affiliated organizations, foremost among them Hezbollah. Moreover, Iran does not possess the qualitative military superiority over Israel in the military balance that would make it an existential threat to it. Israel is the one that possesses the advantage of advanced American equipment that America provides exclusively to it. Therefore, Israel's justification for its attack as preemptive to prevent a threat to it cannot be justified. The real danger lies in justifying the use of military force and aggression against any country, regardless of the nature of the disagreement with it, merely based on uncertain predictions, while ignoring and violating international laws and norms, which is what Israel has done.
A significant fire has erupted in the region, with consequences that are extremely dangerous within just two days. Its continuation without urgent containment will lead to terrifying outcomes. But how can it be contained with the declared bias of some influential countries in the international community towards Israel, foremost among them the strongest and most important country: America? This is the troubling question.
