التوافق الحكومي اللبناني على صفيح ساخن

The Lebanese Cabinet will convene (next Tuesday) at the presidential palace, chaired by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, to discuss two main agenda items: the implementation of the ministerial statement concerning the assertion of state sovereignty over all its territory exclusively through its own forces, and the arrangements related to the cessation of hostilities for November 2024.

This session comes amid sensitive political atmospheres, as the issue of asserting state sovereignty over all Lebanese territory, specifically the topic of illegal weapons, remains a subject of extensive debate among political forces.

In this context, the most pressing question arises: Will the ministers of the Amal Movement and Hezbollah participate in the session, especially since the agenda items are directly related to their political positions and stance on weapons? The ministers of the Amal Movement and Hezbollah hold several key ministerial portfolios in the current government, including the Ministries of Finance and Public Health, along with other ministries. Their participation in Cabinet sessions is considered vital to ensure political balance within the government and its ability to make effective decisions. Therefore, their absence from this session could impact the government's ability to make decisive decisions regarding the implementation of the ministerial statement related to state sovereignty.

The possibility of their non-participation raises many questions that deserve attention: Is the absence an indication of an impending political escalation, or is it an attempt to pressure the government into a time-buying square? What about the government's credibility before the international community, especially amid American pressures? Are there internal preparations to overcome any potential withdrawals from the session? And what are the possible scenarios if they attend without reaching an internal consensus? Additionally, the impact of this session on the internal Lebanese situation cannot be overlooked, particularly regarding security and economic aspects. Completing the implementation of the ministerial statement concerning sovereignty is a fundamental factor for Lebanon's stability, given its implications for national security and strengthening the role of the state and its institutions.

In this context, a political source familiar with the matter told “Okaz”: If the ministers of the Shiite duo are absent from the session, the government may find itself facing significant challenges in making decisive decisions regarding Hezbollah's weapons issue. He added that this absence could weaken the government's position both internally and externally, especially amid American pressures.

On the other hand, this absence may be seen as a message from the concerned political forces indicating their unwillingness to make concessions on this issue.

The source pointed out that this stance could exacerbate the political division within the government and lead to a disruption of its work on other files, negatively reflecting on the overall governmental performance and increasing the confusion in the Lebanese scene at a time when popular and economic pressures on institutions are rising.

According to the source, the absence from the session may motivate other parties within the government or the opposition to raise the ceiling of demands or exploit the political vacuum resulting from the lack of consensus, which could increase political and social tensions in the country.

Ultimately, the session emerges as a real test of the government's ability to manage its internal disagreements and achieve a minimum consensus on major national issues, foremost of which is asserting state sovereignty.

The challenge lies not only in issuing statements but in the actual political will for implementation and application.