Today (Sunday), Brazilians are choosing, through a decisive runoff, between the leftist president Lula da Silva and the right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, amid a close race in opinion polls, in an election that could strengthen the rise of the right in Latin America and affect Brasília's relations with Washington.

The Wave of Right-Wing Victories in Latin America

Flávio surprised many at the beginning of this month when he defied opinion poll predictions and led the voting in the first round. Bolsonaro received 47% of the votes in the first round, compared to 45% for the current president Lula da Silva.

Bolsonaro's victory (45 years old) reinforces the wave of right-wing victories in Latin America, especially among candidates close to U.S. President Donald Trump, while Lula's win for a fourth term would be a disappointment for Washington, which has strained relations with the Brazilian government over trade and security issues.

The election campaign has been dominated by corruption scandals, economic concerns, and accusations of U.S. interference, which Washington denies.

Trump's Tariffs and Disputes with Washington

The elections were affected by the repercussions of Jair Bolsonaro's conviction in 2025 for plotting a coup in 2022. Flávio pledged to release his father if he wins the election. Trump described this case as a targeted campaign and imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025, a decision clearly linked to Jair Bolsonaro's trial.

Despite some of these measures being eased, Trump imposed new tariffs on Brazil this year, citing unfair trade practices. Lula considered Trump's closeness to the Bolsonaro family as part of attempts to influence the elections and criticized the tariffs and other punitive measures.

Lula faces economic difficulties in gaining the support of voters suffering from rising living costs and accumulating household debts, despite a decrease in inequality and unemployment rates. The rampant violence perpetrated by criminal gangs is also a concern for voters.

In contrast, Bolsonaro sought to exploit concerns about living costs, pledging to adopt a tough approach to crime that includes building high-security prisons and chemical castration for serious sexual offenders.

The Competition Heats Up Until the Last Moments

Lula gained electoral momentum in recent weeks, as recent polls indicated a narrowing gap between him and his 45-year-old opponent. The Brazilian president intensified his campaign rallies across the country and worked on enhancing his campaign style through social media platforms, in an effort to rally more voters before the decisive round.

Lula achieved a political gain this month after the Senate approved a measure aimed at reducing the workweek from six days to five, one of the key proposals adopted by the former labor unions president during his election campaign.

Bolsonaro relies on the strong performance he achieved in the first round, as his share of the votes exceeded the estimates shown by opinion polls before the voting, raising questions about the polls' ability to measure the actual level of support he enjoys.

The last televised debate between the candidates, held on Friday evening, witnessed an exchange of accusations regarding corruption, alongside disagreements over economic management and public security.