النفط.. البوصلة الحقيقية للتوترات العالمية

In energy markets, as is commonly known, prices move according to the equations of supply and demand, along with a third element that is no less important: geopolitics. With the escalation of military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran, and its extension to broader levels of regional tension, markets have once again conjured one of the most sensitive scenarios in the global economy, represented by a surge in oil prices to levels approaching $120 per barrel.

This increase is not only related to a decline in actual supplies but also to what economists call the "geopolitical risk premium." When the likelihood of supply disruptions increases, prices rise even before any real production shortages occur. It is enough for the production or transportation area to be threatened for markets to begin pricing in the risks.

The Middle East still represents the heart of the global energy equation. Nearly one-fifth of maritime oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important strategic passages in the world. Any potential disruption in this passage directly reflects on oil prices, as markets recognize that logistical alternatives cannot easily compensate for this volume of supplies.

What is striking about this crisis is that, in addition to the markets' fear of supply disruptions, there is also concern about the widening scope of the conflict. The longer the war lasts or the more it expands geographically, the greater the chances that its impact will spill over from energy markets to the global economy as a whole. The rise in oil prices goes beyond the idea of increased fuel costs; it also extends to rising transportation, production, and industrial costs, bringing back the specter of inflation to economies that had barely begun to contain its waves in recent years.

Historically, wars in the Middle East have been one of the most prominent drivers of rising oil prices. The world experienced oil shocks in the 1970s that reshaped the global economy for many years. Today, although the global economy is more diversified in energy sources, oil still constitutes the backbone of the global industrial economy. A well-known study by economist James Hamilton concluded that seven out of eight recessions that hit the U.S. economy since the end of World War II were preceded by sharp spikes in oil prices, reflecting the close relationship between energy shocks and economic recession cycles. This crisis reveals an economic truth that markets have long recognized: oil is a sensitive indicator of geopolitical balances in the world. Therefore, when these balances become tense, energy prices become the first measure of the level of concern in the global economy.

Conversely, major producing countries play a pivotal role in calming markets and preventing political tensions from turning into sharp economic shocks. The stability of supplies remains the most important factor in containing price fluctuations. Here, the importance of countries that possess spare production capacity and advanced logistical capabilities in exporting oil to global markets becomes evident.

Saudi Arabia remains one of the most important elements of stability in the global energy market, thanks to its large production capacity and long-term investments in energy infrastructure. These investments are part of a strategic vision aimed at ensuring the stability of global supplies even in complex geopolitical conditions.