إيران.. بين ثورتين وأزمتَي طاقة!

The energy crisis in Iran just before the success of the Khomeini revolution in 1978 formed the most significant path to the collapse of the Shah's regime. More than 37,000 workers stopped working in energy production, turning the country into a mere silent stone mass devoid of life.

The long lines of luxurious American cars owned by Iranians before the revolution stretched for hundreds of meters in most Iranian cities, and many were forced to leave them at the closed gas stations.

The severe disruptions in the oil sector due to widespread labor strikes led to a decline in Iranian oil production, which dropped from about 6 million barrels per day to around one and a half million. Iran was indeed staggering, with public revenues collapsing and life within the country coming to a halt.

The workers' refusal to work resulted in power outages, heating systems in homes breaking down, patients piling up in hospitals, the collapse of commercial activity, and bakeries stopping production, which drove millions to the streets to clash with security forces.

Khomeini, from his Parisian suburb, managed to control the country and paralyze its movement through several tapes he sent to the workers urging them to stop working.

In a desperate attempt, the Iranian army and navy tried to manage the oil facilities and operate the refineries, but that did not happen. Everything collapsed quickly, and Khomeini's plan to suffocate the Shah's regime succeeded, perhaps with the West's negligence or even assistance, leading to the fall of the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

It is true that the fuel crisis before the Iranian revolution was linked to the departure of foreign experts and companies, but the stoppage of Iranian workers was the most significant factor as they refused to go to work and stayed in their homes.

The regime fell with the shutdown of the first station, even months before the Shah's departure.

Today, the same scenes are repeating, as long lines of cheap Iranian cars wait to fill their tanks with fuel, but the only words they hear are: "Gasoline is out," not because the workers have stopped working as they did five decades ago, but because the supply stations have been struck and turned into mere rubble.

In an effort by the current Iranian government to address the ongoing collapse of energy supplies, it has resorted to harsh and rapid rationing measures, imposing repeated closures across the country, including schools, universities, and government offices, to rationalize energy consumption, alongside intermittent electricity supply and transporting fuel from small cities to secure the capital Tehran and avoid shutting down its stations.

The problem in Iran is not a result of the repercussions of war, nor due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, nor just damage to power stations, but it is much deeper and older. The Iranian regime preferred to allocate energy supplies to military efforts and war manufacturing, diverting its resources from electricity to serve parallel activities (such as cryptocurrency mining operations for the Revolutionary Guard to circumvent sanctions), and directing financial capabilities to feed its proxies and invest in regional conflicts at the expense of maintaining and renewing the dilapidated local infrastructure.

The most important question that can be raised after this comparison between the two phases is: Will the lines of cars, the shutdown of power stations, the failure of health services, and the lack of food and bread drive millions of Iranians to the streets as their parents did in 1978 in the wake of the fuel crisis? And can we say how similar tonight is to yesterday? Perhaps the only difference between them is that that revolution was ideological, facilitated by Western collusion, while today’s revolution may be about living conditions incited by the West, but it will leave it halfway as it always has.