الطاقة العالمية بين الحرب والاستقرار

The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most important strategic energy corridors in the world, through which about 20% of the oil exported globally passes, along with large quantities of liquefied natural gas. This confirms that it is a vital artery upon which the global economy directly relies. Any disruption in it, or partial or complete closure due to the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel, creates an immediate shock in energy markets and threatens the stability of global economic growth, which has already been suffering from a slowdown over the past six years.

The ongoing war leads to an immediate rise in oil and gas prices, with expectations that oil could surpass the $100 per barrel mark if the partial or complete closure continues. Disruption of shipping through the strait puts pressure on global supply chains, which reflects on manufacturing industries such as automobiles, electronics, and chemicals. Increased transportation and production costs directly lead to global inflation and put energy-importing economies under severe pressure, which in turn reshuffles the monetary policies of central banks that previously adopted a reduction in interest rate constraints.

Over the past fifty years, oil and non-oil countries have attempted to reduce dependence on specific vulnerabilities such as the Strait of Hormuz. These efforts included the development of renewable energy, the establishment of strategic oil reserves, and the construction of alternative pipelines to the east and west to avoid bottlenecks in energy exports. However, these solutions remain partial and cannot provide full coverage if the war continues for an extended period. Renewable energy is still insufficient to compensate for actual oil production, strategic reserves are limited, and alternative pipelines do not cover all vital routes for the flow of oil and gas.

The Gulf countries have demonstrated their commitment to providing energy to global markets even amid current tensions, reflecting the international responsibility these countries bear towards the stability of the global economy. However, stability in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be achieved without international cooperation; energy-importing countries must support maritime security to ensure the continuity of supplies.

The economic impact of this crisis extends to global growth. Rising oil prices increase production and transportation costs, putting pressure on corporate profits and affecting consumption. Industries that rely on imported raw materials will face delays and rising operational costs, which may lead to the shutdown of some production lines. All of this poses a direct threat to global growth, especially with the slowdown of major economies over the past years.

The current war also reveals the limitations of the alternative solutions that countries have put in place over the past half-century. Renewable energy, strategic reserves, and alternative pipelines provide only partial protection, but they cannot withstand a long-term shock. The world today needs to realize that any prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz means a real global energy crisis, with direct implications for prices, inflation, and future economic growth.

The continuation of the war puts markets to a direct test, either enhancing international cooperation to ensure the continuity of supplies or facing a long-term global shock that could hinder economic growth and increase inflationary pressures. In light of this reality, the entire world, producers and consumers alike, must acknowledge that protecting this vital corridor is a collective responsibility that cannot be ignored.